In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

29%implied YES probability

±0pp 24h ±0pp 7d

Odds as of last update · refreshed at least daily

Current odds

Platform	Current odds	Volume
Manifold	YES 29% · NO 71%	$12.4M	view ↗

Tracked on Manifold. MassPredict monitors 9 prediction-market platforms for the same question — when another platform lists this event, its price appears here for side-by-side comparison.

This market resolves based on the outcome of the question above, with a close date of January 2, 2028. The price is an implied probability set by traders on Manifold — read it as the market's live estimate, not a guarantee or financial advice. Always check the source platform for exact resolution terms.

Explore all markets