Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?

28%implied YES probability
▼ -1pp 24h ±0pp 7d
Odds as of last update · refreshed at least daily

Current odds

PlatformCurrent oddsVolume
Kalshi YES 28% · NO 72% $25.8M

Tracked on Kalshi. MassPredict monitors 9 prediction-market platforms for the same question — when another platform lists this event, its price appears here for side-by-side comparison.

This market resolves based on the outcome of the question above, with a close date of July 1, 2028. The price is an implied probability set by traders on Kalshi — read it as the market's live estimate, not a guarantee or financial advice. Always check the source platform for exact resolution terms.

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