Accuracy — How often this platform's market prices correctly predicted the outcome. A market priced at 80% YES that resolves YES counts as correct.
Brier Score — A calibration metric where 0 = perfect and 0.25 = random chance. Lower is better.
Resolutions — Total markets on this platform that have resolved with a definitive YES/NO outcome.
Upset Rate — How often the market favorite lost. A market priced above 80% that resolves to the opposite outcome is an "upset."
Trade data sourced from platform APIs where available. Polymarket provides on-chain trade data. Kalshi provides aggregate volume.
For other platforms, trade activity is estimated from price movement velocity and volume changes. Buy/sell ratio and sentiment are derived from price direction weighted by trade size.
Whale trades are individual trades above $500 in value. For platforms without trade-level data, large price movements are used as a proxy for possible whale activity.
Big vs Small Bets compares trading behavior between large accounts (whales/sharks) and small retail traders. Divergence — when big money bets one way and small bets the other — can signal informed positioning.
Currently requires wallet-level trade data, available for Polymarket (on-chain). For other platforms, price impact analysis provides estimates.
SP has no monetary value · Not financial advice · 18+