Few events move markets like an FOMC meeting, and prediction markets price the outcome in real time. Whether the question is a hike, a cut, a hold, or the size of a move, traders update constantly as inflation prints, jobs reports, and Fed speeches land. MassPredict gathers live Fed-decision odds from Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx and more into a single view.
Comparing platforms around a rate decision is genuinely useful because the spread between them shows how settled the expectation really is. When one platform prices a hold near-certain and another leaves more room for a cut, that gap captures live disagreement ahead of the announcement. You read both at once and judge the divergence yourself.
Coverage centers on FOMC rate decisions and meeting outcomes across the calendar. MassPredict displays the spread between platforms and never tells you what to do with it.
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
POLYMARKET · YES 97% · NO 3% · $8.9M vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.75%
FUTUUR · YES 16% · NO 84% · $126.9K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Greater than 3.75%
FUTUUR · YES 69% · NO 31% · $126.9K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.50%
FUTUUR · YES 6% · NO 94% · $126.9K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.25%
FUTUUR · YES 5% · NO 95% · $126.9K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.0% or less
FUTUUR · YES 4% · NO 96% · $126.9K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.5% or more
FUTUUR · YES 89% · NO 11% · $112.2K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.25%-3.49%
FUTUUR · YES 4% · NO 96% · $112.2K vol
Number of rate hikes in 2026? — Exactly 1
KALSHI · YES 17% · NO 83% · $106.9K vol
Next Fed rate hike? — Before 2027
KALSHI · YES 80% · NO 20% · $84.8K vol
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
KALSHI · YES 7% · NO 93% · $79.3K vol
Number of rate hikes in 2026? — Exactly 3
KALSHI · YES 18% · NO 82% · $68.5K vol
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? — 7 or more cuts
KALSHI · YES 71% · NO 29% · $56.6K vol
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 - 0
FUTUUR · YES 89% · NO 11% · $49.1K vol
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 - 1
FUTUUR · YES 7% · NO 93% · $49.1K vol
Brazil Selic rate decision — November 2026 COPOM meeting - 25 bps decrease
FUTUUR · YES 86% · NO 14% · $46.8K vol
Brazil Selic rate decision — November 2026 COPOM meeting - 50+ bps decrease
FUTUUR · YES 4% · NO 96% · $46.8K vol
Brazil Selic rate decision — November 2026 COPOM meeting - No change
FUTUUR · YES 10% · NO 90% · $46.8K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Between 14.00% and 15.75%
FUTUUR · YES 21% · NO 79% · $41.9K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Between 10.0%, and 11.75%
FUTUUR · YES 10% · NO 90% · $41.9K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Between 12.00% and 13.75%
FUTUUR · YES 54% · NO 46% · $41.9K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 10% or Less
FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $41.9K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 16% or more
FUTUUR · YES 5% · NO 95% · $41.9K vol
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 5 cuts
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $41.1K vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 2
KALSHI · YES 64% · NO 36% · $40.6K vol
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 6 cuts
KALSHI · YES 24% · NO 76% · $40.5K vol
Fed interest rate decision — October 2026 - No change
FUTUUR · YES 73% · NO 27% · $32.3K vol
Fed interest rate decision — October 2026 - 25 bps increase
FUTUUR · YES 50% · NO 50% · $32.3K vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 1
KALSHI · YES 14% · NO 86% · $29.6K vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 3
KALSHI · YES 22% · NO 78% · $26.4K vol
Next Fed rate hike? — Before July 2027
KALSHI · YES 90% · NO 10% · $25.5K vol
Number of rate hikes in 2026? — Exactly 2
KALSHI · YES 69% · NO 31% · $24.4K vol
Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026 - No change
FUTUUR · YES 94% · NO 6% · $22.0K vol
Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026 - 25 bps increase
FUTUUR · YES 6% · NO 94% · $22.0K vol
Time's Person of the Year for 2026 — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $19.1K vol
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 0ㅤ
KALSHI · YES 93% · NO 7% · $13.8K vol
Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 11% · NO 89% · $13.0K vol
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 1ㅤ
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $9.7K vol
Nebraska-02 House Winner: Denise Powell
GEMINI · YES 97% · NO 3% · $1.5K vol
What will JPMorgan say during their next earnings call? — Rate Cut / Cut Rates
KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $1.0K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $964 vol
Next Fed rate cut? — Before July 2027
KALSHI · YES 20% · NO 80% · $142 vol
Will the FOMC upper bound reach 4.50% or higher at any point before January 1st?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
ECB Interest Rate > 0.9% (Dec 2026)
FORECASTEX · YES 97% · NO 3%
Will the FOMC skip the October 27–28, 2026 meeting (hold rates) but raise rates at the December 8–9, 2026 meeting, ending the year with an upper bound of 4.25%?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the FOMC raise rates at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting AND again at the December 8–9, 2026 meeting, reaching an upper bound of 4.50%?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the FOMC hold the federal funds rate upper bound at exactly 4.00% through December 31, 2026 (i.e., no second hike beyond September's 3.75%-4.00% range)?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the FOMC upper bound of the federal funds target range reach 4.25% or above at any point before December 31, 2026?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the FOMC deliver a second 25 bp rate hike in 2026 — bringing the upper bound to 4.25% — by December 31st?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
ECB Interest Rate > 2.65% (Dec 2026)
FORECASTEX · YES 40% · NO 60%
Will the FOMC deliver exactly one additional rate hike in 2026 after the October 27–28 meeting — leaving the upper bound at exactly 4.25% on December 31st?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the FOMC hold rates steady (upper bound at 4.00%) at both the October and December 2026 meetings — i.e., will the upper bound remain at or below 4.00% through December 31st?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
ECB Interest Rate > 2.65% (Oct 2026)
FORECASTEX · YES 18% · NO 82%
Will the FOMC hold the upper bound of the federal funds target range at or below 4.00% at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceed 4.50% on October 28, 2026 (FOMC decision day)?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remain below 4.25% on October 28, 2026 (FOMC decision day)?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the FOMC deliver exactly two 25-basis-point hikes between October 1 and December 9, 2026, bringing the upper bound to 4.50%?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range remain at or below 4.25% after both the October 27–28 and December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meetings (at most one additional hike)?
SWIPREDICT · YES 50% · NO 50%
ECB Interest Rate > 2.15% (Oct 2026)
FORECASTEX · YES 97% · NO 3%
ECB Interest Rate > 2.15% (Dec 2026)
FORECASTEX · YES 97% · NO 3%
Federal Reserve prediction markets — FAQ
How do Fed rate decision prediction markets work?
Traders buy and sell shares tied to outcomes like a hold, a 25 basis point cut, or a hike at a given FOMC meeting. The price reflects the market's implied probability for each outcome ahead of the announcement.
What does a 90% hold probability mean?
It means the market implies roughly a 90% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at that meeting. It is a live read on expectations, not a forecast from the Fed itself.
Why do Fed odds differ between prediction platforms?
Each platform's traders interpret the same data and Fed commentary slightly differently and at different speeds. Comparing them shows where the expectation is genuinely contested rather than settled.
When do FOMC prediction markets resolve?
They resolve when the Federal Reserve announces its decision at the end of the scheduled FOMC meeting. The official rate statement determines the outcome.
Are prediction markets a good way to gauge Fed expectations?
They offer a real-time view of what traders collectively expect, which can complement other indicators. They are informational only and not financial advice.