Few events move markets like an FOMC meeting, and prediction markets price the outcome in real time. Whether the question is a hike, a cut, a hold, or the size of a move, traders update constantly as inflation prints, jobs reports, and Fed speeches land. MassPredict gathers live Fed-decision odds from Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx and more into a single view.
Comparing platforms around a rate decision is genuinely useful because the spread between them shows how settled the expectation really is. When one platform prices a hold near-certain and another leaves more room for a cut, that gap captures live disagreement ahead of the announcement. You read both at once and judge the divergence yourself.
Coverage centers on FOMC rate decisions and meeting outcomes across the calendar. MassPredict displays the spread between platforms and never tells you what to do with it.
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
POLYMARKET · YES 84% · NO 16% · $6.3M vol
Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 0 cuts
KALSHI · YES 81% · NO 19% · $1.9M vol
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?
KALSHI · YES 23% · NO 77% · $771.4K vol
Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 1 cut
KALSHI · YES 14% · NO 86% · $617.2K vol
Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 2 cuts
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $597.3K vol
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $482.5K vol
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Aug 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $405.6K vol
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? — 0 cuts
KALSHI · YES 92% · NO 8% · $223.7K vol
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 27% · NO 73% · $161.1K vol
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? — 1 cuts
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $95.7K vol
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? — Before 2027
KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $67.0K vol
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?: Jerome Powell
GEMINI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $38.9K vol
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 - 3
FUTUUR · YES 5% · NO 95% · $36.3K vol
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 - 1
FUTUUR · YES 21% · NO 79% · $36.3K vol
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 - 0
FUTUUR · YES 69% · NO 31% · $36.3K vol
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 - 2
FUTUUR · YES 10% · NO 90% · $36.3K vol
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Oct 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 7% · NO 93% · $21.6K vol
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $20.4K vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 0
KALSHI · YES 40% · NO 60% · $17.6K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 2.75%-2.99%
FUTUUR · YES 12% · NO 88% · $16.8K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.25%-3.49%
FUTUUR · YES 18% · NO 82% · $16.8K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 2.50%-2.74%
FUTUUR · YES 11% · NO 89% · $16.8K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 2.25%-2.49%
FUTUUR · YES 5% · NO 95% · $16.8K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - Less than 2.25%
FUTUUR · YES 7% · NO 93% · $16.8K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.5% or more
FUTUUR · YES 63% · NO 37% · $16.8K vol
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.00%-3.24%
FUTUUR · YES 6% · NO 94% · $16.8K vol
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Jun 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 69% · NO 31% · $15.8K vol
Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 7% · NO 93% · $15.8K vol
Time's Person of the Year for 2026 — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $15.3K vol
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Dec 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 20% · NO 80% · $14.4K vol
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Sep 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 7% · NO 93% · $14.1K vol
Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 19% · NO 81% · $10.8K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Greater than 3.75%
FUTUUR · YES 28% · NO 72% · $10.3K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.75%
FUTUUR · YES 27% · NO 73% · $10.3K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.50%
FUTUUR · YES 16% · NO 84% · $10.3K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.25%
FUTUUR · YES 11% · NO 89% · $10.3K vol
United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 3.0% or less
FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $10.3K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Between 14.00% and 15.75%
FUTUUR · YES 16% · NO 84% · $10.0K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 10% or Less
FUTUUR · YES 7% · NO 93% · $10.0K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Between 10.0%, and 11.75%
FUTUUR · YES 18% · NO 82% · $10.0K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - Between 12.00% and 13.75%
FUTUUR · YES 42% · NO 58% · $10.0K vol
Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026 - 16% or more
FUTUUR · YES 4% · NO 96% · $10.0K vol
Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 18% · NO 82% · $8.2K vol
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Nov 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 14% · NO 86% · $7.3K vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 1
KALSHI · YES 36% · NO 64% · $6.9K vol
European Central Bank interest rate decision in July - Maintain the same rate
FUTUUR · YES 97% · NO 3% · $6.2K vol
European Central Bank interest rate decision in July - Lower by 0.25% or more
FUTUUR · YES 4% · NO 96% · $6.2K vol
European Central Bank interest rate decision in July - Rise by 0.25% or more
FUTUUR · YES 3% · NO 97% · $6.2K vol
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 3 cuts
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $5.8K vol
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 5 cuts
KALSHI · YES 36% · NO 64% · $3.7K vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 2
KALSHI · YES 25% · NO 75% · $2.7K vol
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 0ㅤ
KALSHI · YES 93% · NO 7% · $2.5K vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 3
KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $2.5K vol
Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell? — Before Aug 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $2.2K vol
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 4 cuts
KALSHI · YES 48% · NO 52% · $2.0K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Jerome Powell
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $917 vol
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 — Exactly 4
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $778 vol
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 2ㅤ
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $778 vol
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 1ㅤ
KALSHI · YES 15% · NO 85% · $650 vol
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 6 cuts
KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $340 vol
Federal Reserve prediction markets — FAQ
How do Fed rate decision prediction markets work?
Traders buy and sell shares tied to outcomes like a hold, a 25 basis point cut, or a hike at a given FOMC meeting. The price reflects the market's implied probability for each outcome ahead of the announcement.
What does a 90% hold probability mean?
It means the market implies roughly a 90% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at that meeting. It is a live read on expectations, not a forecast from the Fed itself.
Why do Fed odds differ between prediction platforms?
Each platform's traders interpret the same data and Fed commentary slightly differently and at different speeds. Comparing them shows where the expectation is genuinely contested rather than settled.
When do FOMC prediction markets resolve?
They resolve when the Federal Reserve announces its decision at the end of the scheduled FOMC meeting. The official rate statement determines the outcome.
Are prediction markets a good way to gauge Fed expectations?
They offer a real-time view of what traders collectively expect, which can complement other indicators. They are informational only and not financial advice.