Federal Reserve Prediction Markets
Few events move markets like an FOMC meeting, and prediction markets price the outcome in real time. Whether the question is a hike, a cut, a hold, or the size of a move, traders update constantly as inflation prints, jobs reports, and Fed speeches land. MassPredict gathers live Fed-decision odds from Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx and more into a single view.
Comparing platforms around a rate decision is genuinely useful because the spread between them shows how settled the expectation really is. When one platform prices a hold near-certain and another leaves more room for a cut, that gap captures live disagreement ahead of the announcement. You read both at once and judge the divergence yourself.
Coverage centers on FOMC rate decisions and meeting outcomes across the calendar. MassPredict displays the spread between platforms and never tells you what to do with it.
Top Federal Reserve markets — full odds & analysis
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? 88% YES
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 0 cuts 88% YES
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027? 12% YES
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 1 cut 10% YES
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 2 cuts 2% YES
- Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026? 6% YES
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 3 cuts 1% YES
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 4 cuts 0% YES
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 14 cuts 0% YES
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — Exactly 5 cuts 0% YES
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Aug 1, 2026 10% YES
92 active markets · ranked by volume
Federal Reserve prediction markets — FAQ
How do Fed rate decision prediction markets work?
Traders buy and sell shares tied to outcomes like a hold, a 25 basis point cut, or a hike at a given FOMC meeting. The price reflects the market's implied probability for each outcome ahead of the announcement.
What does a 90% hold probability mean?
It means the market implies roughly a 90% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at that meeting. It is a live read on expectations, not a forecast from the Fed itself.
Why do Fed odds differ between prediction platforms?
Each platform's traders interpret the same data and Fed commentary slightly differently and at different speeds. Comparing them shows where the expectation is genuinely contested rather than settled.
When do FOMC prediction markets resolve?
They resolve when the Federal Reserve announces its decision at the end of the scheduled FOMC meeting. The official rate statement determines the outcome.
Are prediction markets a good way to gauge Fed expectations?
They offer a real-time view of what traders collectively expect, which can complement other indicators. They are informational only and not financial advice.
SP has no monetary value · Not financial advice · 18+