Election markets are some of the most actively traded prediction markets anywhere, and US races draw heavy attention well before any votes are counted. From primaries and individual contests to control of the House and Senate, platforms price each outcome continuously as polls, fundraising, and events shift the landscape. MassPredict gathers live US election odds from Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx and more into one view.
The spread between platforms is especially revealing in politics, where different trader pools can read the same race very differently. When one platform prices a contest as a toss-up and another leans clearly one way, that divergence tells you the outcome is genuinely uncertain. You compare the prices directly and draw your own conclusions.
Coverage spans races, primaries, control of Congress, and election-night outcomes. MassPredict lines the platforms up side by side and leaves the interpretation to you.
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
MANIFOLD · YES 3% · NO 97% · $1.6M vol
Kash Patel out as FBI Director? — Before Aug 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $564.5K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Stephen Miran
KALSHI · YES 32% · NO 68% · $70.8K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Judy Shelton
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $60.0K vol
Will Iran hold a presidential election? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $46.0K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Christopher Waller
KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $44.4K vol
Will any federal or state court rule finds that fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states?
KALSHI · YES 17% · NO 83% · $41.1K vol
When will Venezuela hold a presidential election? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $38.3K vol
French Presidential Election Winner 2027?: Marine Le Pen
GEMINI · YES 34% · NO 66% · $27.9K vol
French Presidential Election Winner 2027?: Gabriel Attal
GEMINI · YES 93% · NO 7% · $27.9K vol
French Presidential Election Winner 2027?: Jordan Bardella
GEMINI · YES 32% · NO 68% · $27.9K vol
French Presidential Election Winner 2027?: Bruno Retailleau
GEMINI · YES 93% · NO 7% · $27.9K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Rick Rieder
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $23.9K vol
Winner of France’s presidential election - Édouard Philippe
FUTUUR · YES 30% · NO 70% · $22.5K vol
Winner of France’s presidential election - Jean-Luc Mélenchon
FUTUUR · YES 12% · NO 88% · $22.5K vol
Winner of France’s presidential election - Dominique de Villepin
FUTUUR · YES 10% · NO 90% · $22.5K vol
Winner of France’s presidential election - Gabriel Attal
FUTUUR · YES 10% · NO 90% · $22.5K vol
Winner of France’s presidential election - Marine Le Pen
FUTUUR · YES 16% · NO 84% · $22.5K vol
Winner of France’s presidential election - Jordan Bardella
FUTUUR · YES 28% · NO 72% · $22.5K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Tim Pool
KALSHI · YES 35% · NO 65% · $21.1K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Kevin Hassett
KALSHI · YES 13% · NO 87% · $18.9K vol
When will Venezuela hold a presidential election? — Before Jun 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 39% · NO 61% · $17.3K vol
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee? — Before Aug 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 55% · NO 45% · $16.9K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Reza Pahlavi
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $13.7K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — John Ternus
KALSHI · YES 35% · NO 65% · $13.0K vol
Which bills will become law in 2026? — White House ballroom funding
KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $12.4K vol
Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?: Fernando Haddad
GEMINI · YES 94% · NO 6% · $11.4K vol
Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?: Flávio Bolsonaro
GEMINI · YES 24% · NO 76% · $11.4K vol
Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?: Renan Santos
GEMINI · YES 21% · NO 79% · $11.4K vol
Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
GEMINI · YES 64% · NO 36% · $11.4K vol
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 63% · NO 37% · $11.3K vol
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica? — Before Apr 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 60% · NO 40% · $10.5K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Joseph Aoun
KALSHI · YES 94% · NO 6% · $7.4K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Elon Musk
KALSHI · YES 71% · NO 29% · $6.6K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Benny Johnson
KALSHI · YES 50% · NO 50% · $6.3K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Abiy Ahmed
KALSHI · YES 21% · NO 79% · $6.2K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Dan Bongino
KALSHI · YES 28% · NO 72% · $5.7K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Tulsi Gabbard
KALSHI · YES 15% · NO 85% · $5.3K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Hakeem Jeffries
KALSHI · YES 49% · NO 51% · $5.3K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Mark Carney
KALSHI · YES 71% · NO 29% · $4.7K vol
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee? — Before Sep 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 76% · NO 24% · $4.6K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Gavin Newsom
KALSHI · YES 22% · NO 78% · $4.4K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
KALSHI · YES 55% · NO 45% · $4.2K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Anutin Charnvirakul
KALSHI · YES 22% · NO 78% · $4.0K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Ben Shapiro
KALSHI · YES 14% · NO 86% · $3.8K vol
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee? — Before Oct 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 79% · NO 21% · $3.7K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Marjorie Taylor Greene
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $3.5K vol
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica? — Before Sep 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 14% · NO 86% · $3.3K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Matt Walsh
KALSHI · YES 27% · NO 73% · $3.0K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
KALSHI · YES 55% · NO 45% · $2.9K vol
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 82% · NO 18% · $2.7K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Eric Adams
KALSHI · YES 15% · NO 85% · $2.4K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Michelle Bowman
KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $2.1K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Bill Maher
KALSHI · YES 18% · NO 82% · $1.9K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — James Bullard
KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $1.7K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Barack Obama
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $1.6K vol
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Marc Sumerlin
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $1.5K vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Joe Biden
KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $1.4K vol
Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? — Tucker Carlson
KALSHI · YES 14% · NO 86% · $922 vol
Who will visit the White House in 2026? — Hun Manet
KALSHI · YES 18% · NO 82% · $606 vol
US Elections prediction markets — FAQ
How do election prediction markets work?
Traders buy and sell shares tied to a candidate or party winning, and the price reflects the market's implied probability of that result. Prices update continuously as new information arrives.
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
They aggregate money-backed opinions rather than survey responses, which can capture sentiment differently from polling. Neither is a guarantee, and prediction markets are informational only, not advice.
Why do election odds differ across prediction platforms?
Separate trader bases, liquidity, and risk appetite produce different prices for the same race. Comparing platforms shows where the market genuinely disagrees about an outcome.
When do US election markets resolve?
They resolve once the race is called against the market's stated criteria, typically after results are official or projected per its rules. Always check the specific resolution terms.
What does a 52% price mean in an election market?
It reflects a roughly 52% implied chance that the named candidate or party wins, a near toss-up. It is a live market read, not a prediction of the final result.