Global Conflicts Prediction Markets

Track and compare odds on 172 active Global Conflicts prediction markets — ceasefires, escalation, diplomatic outcomes and active-conflict events — aggregated across Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx and 6 more platforms. When the same question trades on multiple platforms, MassPredict shows each platform's price side by side so you can spot divergence at a glance.

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172 active markets · ranked by volume

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

POLYMARKET · YES 6% · NO 94% · $31.8M vol

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before July

KALSHI · YES 16% · NO 84% · $1.2M vol

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before August

KALSHI · YES 22% · NO 78% · $973.0K vol

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before 2027

KALSHI · YES 48% · NO 52% · $948.5K vol

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before September

KALSHI · YES 31% · NO 69% · $350.3K vol

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

MANIFOLD · YES 19% · NO 81% · $310.9K vol

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Howard Lutnick

KALSHI · YES 45% · NO 55% · $300.3K vol

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

POLYMARKET · YES 5% · NO 95% · $259.6K vol

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

MANIFOLD · YES 38% · NO 62% · $228.6K vol

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

POLYMARKET · YES 4% · NO 96% · $179.2K vol

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Saudi Arabia

KALSHI · YES 22% · NO 78% · $153.8K vol

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? - Howard Lutnick

FUTUUR · YES 46% · NO 54% · $127.9K vol

NL Rookie of the Year Winner? — Sal Stewart

KALSHI · YES 26% · NO 74% · $97.1K vol

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?

KALSHI · YES 11% · NO 89% · $77.8K vol

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Sep 1, 2026

KALSHI · YES 26% · NO 74% · $65.0K vol

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

MANIFOLD · YES 16% · NO 84% · $60.5K vol

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Lebanon

KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $46.0K vol

End of US military operation in Iran by ...? - June 30

FUTUUR · YES 60% · NO 40% · $42.2K vol

End of US military operation in Iran by ...? - May 31

FUTUUR · YES 26% · NO 74% · $42.2K vol

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jul 1, 2026

KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $42.1K vol

What countries will Trump visit in 2026? — Israel

KALSHI · YES 37% · NO 63% · $35.2K vol

Who will visit Iran before July? — Any U.S. Senator

KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $32.3K vol

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Syria

KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $30.8K vol

NL MVP Winner? — Kyle Schwarber

KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $29.3K vol

Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026? - Oman

FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $22.3K vol

Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026? - Qatar

FUTUUR · YES 14% · NO 86% · $22.3K vol

Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026? - Saudi Arabia

FUTUUR · YES 16% · NO 84% · $22.3K vol

Which countries will join NATO as members in 2026? - Georgia

FUTUUR · YES 5% · NO 95% · $22.3K vol

Which countries will join NATO as members in 2026? - Bosnia and Herzegovina

FUTUUR · YES 7% · NO 93% · $22.3K vol

Which countries will join NATO as members in 2026? - Ukraine

FUTUUR · YES 7% · NO 93% · $22.3K vol

MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - Less than 60

FUTUUR · YES 3% · NO 97% · $19.2K vol

MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - Between 60 and 100

FUTUUR · YES 5% · NO 95% · $19.2K vol

MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - More than 180

FUTUUR · YES 57% · NO 43% · $19.2K vol

MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - Between 140 and 180

FUTUUR · YES 42% · NO 58% · $19.2K vol

MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - More than 100, less than 140

FUTUUR · YES 5% · NO 95% · $19.2K vol

Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026? - Zakarpattia

FUTUUR · YES 95% · NO 5% · $18.4K vol

Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026? - Zaporizhzhia

FUTUUR · YES 39% · NO 61% · $18.4K vol

Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026? - Luhansk

FUTUUR · YES 15% · NO 85% · $18.4K vol

How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? — 5 or more

KALSHI · YES 32% · NO 68% · $15.7K vol

What countries will Trump visit in 2026? — North Korea

KALSHI · YES 13% · NO 87% · $15.6K vol

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Indonesia

KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $15.6K vol

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Oman

KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $14.5K vol

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Colombia

KALSHI · YES 70% · NO 30% · $12.9K vol

Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?

KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $12.7K vol

How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? — Exactly 4

KALSHI · YES 21% · NO 79% · $11.4K vol

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026? — Exactly 1

KALSHI · YES 19% · NO 81% · $10.7K vol

What countries will Trump visit in 2026? — Ukraine

KALSHI · YES 11% · NO 89% · $10.6K vol

Golden Spikes Award Winner — Roch Cholowsky

KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $10.4K vol

Which countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026? - No NATO member

FUTUUR · YES 51% · NO 49% · $10.4K vol

Which countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026? - France

FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $10.4K vol

Which countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026? - United States

FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $10.4K vol

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026? — Exactly 0

KALSHI · YES 73% · NO 27% · $9.9K vol

NL Hank Aaron Award Winner? — Shohei Ohtani

KALSHI · YES 27% · NO 73% · $8.2K vol

What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027? — Ukraine

KALSHI · YES 7% · NO 93% · $8.1K vol

Golden Spikes Award Winner — Landon Hairston

KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $6.3K vol

Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? — Ukraine

KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $5.8K vol

How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? — Exactly 2

KALSHI · YES 16% · NO 84% · $5.2K vol

How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? — Exactly 3

KALSHI · YES 24% · NO 76% · $5.1K vol

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026? — Exactly 2

KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $4.8K vol

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026? — Exactly 3

KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $4.5K vol