Geopolitical markets price questions that are hard to read any other way: whether a ceasefire holds, whether a conflict escalates, whether a diplomatic outcome lands by a deadline. These markets move on headlines, statements, and on-the-ground developments, and platforms often price the same question differently. MassPredict aggregates live conflict and diplomacy odds from Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx and more into one place.
Because the underlying events are uncertain and fast-changing, the spread between platforms can be wide and meaningful. When one platform prices a ceasefire as more likely than another does, that gap captures real disagreement about an unresolved situation. Seeing both at once lets you weigh the divergence yourself.
Coverage spans ceasefires, escalation, diplomatic outcomes, and other active-conflict events. MassPredict displays the spread between platforms and offers no view of its own.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
POLYMARKET · YES 2% · NO 98% · $44.1M vol
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $1.8M vol
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
POLYMARKET · YES 3% · NO 97% · $1.1M vol
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
POLYMARKET · YES 5% · NO 95% · $688.9K vol
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Howard Lutnick
KALSHI · YES 18% · NO 82% · $416.8K vol
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
MANIFOLD · YES 3% · NO 97% · $377.2K vol
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
MANIFOLD · YES 31% · NO 69% · $282.4K vol
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $276.4K vol
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
POLYMARKET · YES 3% · NO 97% · $257.5K vol
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? - Howard Lutnick
FUTUUR · YES 25% · NO 75% · $150.1K vol
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
MANIFOLD · YES 16% · NO 84% · $116.7K vol
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 50
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $111.7K vol
Winner of Israel's legislative election - Likud
FUTUUR · YES 40% · NO 60% · $89.3K vol
Winner of Israel's legislative election - Yashar
FUTUUR · YES 59% · NO 41% · $89.3K vol
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 14% · NO 86% · $79.4K vol
What countries will Trump visit in 2026? — Israel
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $54.8K vol
What countries will Trump visit in 2026? — North Korea
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $48.8K vol
Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ...? - December 31
FUTUUR · YES 11% · NO 89% · $41.7K vol
Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026? - Luhansk
FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $33.1K vol
Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026? - Zakarpattia
FUTUUR · YES 95% · NO 5% · $33.1K vol
Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026? - Zaporizhzhia
FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $33.1K vol
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 13% · NO 87% · $29.1K vol
Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? — Before Nov 3, 2026
KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $23.7K vol
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? - December 31
FUTUUR · YES 15% · NO 85% · $22.1K vol
MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - Between 140 and 180
FUTUUR · YES 38% · NO 62% · $21.4K vol
MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - Less than 60
FUTUUR · YES 3% · NO 97% · $21.4K vol
MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - Between 60 and 100
FUTUUR · YES 4% · NO 96% · $21.4K vol
MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - More than 180
FUTUUR · YES 51% · NO 49% · $21.4K vol
MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term - More than 100, less than 140
FUTUUR · YES 4% · NO 96% · $21.4K vol
Ruben Gallego out as Senator? — Before Nov 3, 2026
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $20.9K vol
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 58
KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $18.9K vol
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 60
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $18.8K vol
What countries will Trump visit in 2026? — Ukraine
KALSHI · YES 2% · NO 98% · $17.3K vol
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — North Carolina
KALSHI · YES 35% · NO 65% · $16.4K vol
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Alaska
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $16.1K vol
Will the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announce its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027?
KALSHI · YES 54% · NO 46% · $16.0K vol
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 55
KALSHI · YES 12% · NO 88% · $15.0K vol
NL Rookie of the Year Winner: Sal Stewart
GEMINI · YES 77% · NO 23% · $13.6K vol
NL MVP Winner: Kyle Schwarber
GEMINI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $13.0K vol
Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? — Before Jul 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 9% · NO 91% · $12.0K vol
Will the annual average credit-intermediation employment level for Delaware for 2026 be above 26.0 thousand employees?
KALSHI · YES 20% · NO 80% · $10.3K vol
Which countries will improve their position in the 2027 Democracy Report Ranking? - Israel
FUTUUR · YES 23% · NO 77% · $9.9K vol
Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? — Florida
KALSHI · YES 32% · NO 68% · $9.6K vol
Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Edward Snowden
KALSHI · YES 4% · NO 96% · $8.4K vol
Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026? - Qatar
FUTUUR · YES 9% · NO 91% · $7.6K vol
Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026? - Saudi Arabia
FUTUUR · YES 11% · NO 89% · $7.6K vol
Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026? - Oman
FUTUUR · YES 6% · NO 94% · $7.6K vol
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 62
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $7.3K vol
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 64
KALSHI · YES 5% · NO 95% · $7.2K vol
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — South Carolina
KALSHI · YES 8% · NO 92% · $5.8K vol
Winning party in Wisconsin's gubernatorial election (2026) - Republican Party
FUTUUR · YES 19% · NO 81% · $5.7K vol
Winning party in Wisconsin's gubernatorial election (2026) - Democratic Party
FUTUUR · YES 81% · NO 19% · $5.7K vol
Winning party in Iowa's gubernatorial election (2026) - Republican Party
FUTUUR · YES 23% · NO 77% · $5.1K vol
Winning party in Iowa's gubernatorial election (2026) - Democratic Party
FUTUUR · YES 77% · NO 23% · $5.1K vol
Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 6% · NO 94% · $4.8K vol
Will the Council of the European Union report adoption of an EU ban on Israeli settlement goods before Jan 1, 2027?
KALSHI · YES 10% · NO 90% · $4.2K vol
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Kansas
KALSHI · YES 24% · NO 76% · $3.6K vol
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Texas
KALSHI · YES 36% · NO 64% · $3.5K vol
Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? — Before Jan 1, 2027
KALSHI · YES 53% · NO 47% · $3.5K vol
Top Fantasy TE — Tyler Warren
KALSHI · YES 3% · NO 97% · $3.4K vol
Global Conflicts prediction markets — FAQ
How do geopolitical prediction markets work?
They pose specific, verifiable questions about world events, such as whether a ceasefire is in effect by a given date, and traders price the outcome. The price reflects the market's implied probability of that event.
Why do conflict odds differ between prediction platforms?
Different trader pools interpret unfolding events and statements differently and at different speeds. Comparing platforms surfaces where the market is genuinely split on an outcome.
How are geopolitical markets resolved?
Each market resolves against clearly defined criteria and a source named in its terms. Because these events can be ambiguous, the resolution rules matter and should be read carefully.
What does a 25% price mean on a ceasefire market?
It means the market implies roughly a 25% chance the defined condition is met by the deadline. It is a live read on expectations, not a forecast or any kind of advice.
Are prediction markets reliable for geopolitical events?
They reflect how traders collectively weigh uncertain outcomes, which can be informative, but rare and unpredictable events are inherently hard to price. Treat the odds as one informational signal.